Tuesday, May 5, 2009

whats on the dome today....

heres what im thinking:

1. we've seen many a sudden gold rally spike up, consolidate with a slight downward slope before spiking up again and continuing the pattern. even with golds recent jump's we are only a few dollars higher today than we were yesterday so i see the current move as having some potential but nothing outstanding yet.

2. the volume on the mining shares was weak for most during this upswing, but the % move up was nice. we would need to see some serious follow through on volume to signal the move up beyond $1000 imho. its not going to happen on this kind of volume.

3. good to see the Venture Exchange getting some ground, especially old favourites like Miranda. its been so long since the jr's behaved bullishly i dont know what to think. they still have a loooooog looooog way to get back to anything reasonable. there are many exhausted jr mining investors begging for prices to return to these stocks after years of torture.

4. good to see the USD falling a bit along w/ bonds, i suspect everyone was so concerned about calling this "bear market" rally's top that it just kept going to prove everyone wrong once again. most money managers are shy right now imho, mabey too shy if this turns into a crack-up boom. it will break at some point but not until more reluctant people are dragged along.

5. im getting the feeling that massive dislocations will start to take place b/w precious and base metals. alot of money is getting thrown around here and it doesnt always seem to correlate very well. ie: wheat up large, while corn down, then massive reversal's the next day despite crop problems in both on the horizon...

6. pork. its usually on my mind because im addicted to it, but i suspect the buy of a lifetime coming up and a cyclical bull market in pork will take place. for all the talk of what the chinese are doing people forget its not gold they want as much as their main food staple: pork. rice is simply the vehicle to carry the porky juices and fatty run off.

china cut canada's pork exports despite very reasonable support that there is no risk at all to contracting swine flu. it shows how unscientific most nations get when things get hairy. it reminds me the futility of the WTO and UN who lack any real teeth when the going gets tough. what is happening right now will decimate the pork industry in north america, especially canada and pork will continue to be in high demand. its nutritionally more dense than beef because its fat is so prized. (and tasty!)

problems in pork production are going to make local pork jump in price as entire herds get slaughtered if things get worse. a good case study for prices rising as demand falls, farmers will find it not worth while to have pigs if more nations start cutting us out. watching pork for a longer term move up once the carnage is done and the dust settles.

7. i was just thinking the only thing more awesome than a flying unicorn is a unicorn with wings made out of bacon.

8. i have a standing challange to anyone for a few rounds of brazilian jujitsu if and when the HGU breaches $35 in 2009. here's your chance to choke me and my smug commentary out. just no knee-bar's, i have a soccer career to maintain!!

happy trading...


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