Friday monring musing

Ive been experimenting with some new approaches to eating, more specifically eating only 1-2 times a day and drinking my morning coffee with heavy creme. It seems to fill me up and keep me satisfied until dinner time.

I suspect the body prefers to run on fat rather than sugar once it makes the adjustment.

Keeping that in mind Ive returned to the dark recesses of blogging.

Looking forward to getting back into the game.

assorted observations sunday afternoon...

some points to consider for all those following the gold-buggery right now happening in the blogsphere..

1. there has been talk about a default on the COMEX contract for over a year now, with each new wave of rumor centering around 1 central figure who has amassed what is called an "unusually large" position. Each time the month rolled over and passed with little or no fanfare.

for those expecting something to happen in June remember, dont count on black swan events, simply have a plan in case at all times if they appear. Every gold bug is harping on something big happening in june, and by big they tend to mean bullish. the contrarian in me is starting to get worried. remember my maxim: if someone is allegedly building a massive long position because they know something, then someone else with enough gold is selling it to them because they know something.

these kinds of stories are what make great headlines and suck people in. while anything can happen, and im prepared to a sudden gap up or parabolic move in part, im also prepared for the opposite as we have seen the later come to fruition more often than the former.

2. for the many Sinclair fans on the board, who i count myself as one of them, recall Jim's calls last summer/fall about a major massive gap up in gold, a settling of oil at $100 a barrel and gold shares not collapsing... the man is right in a macro sense, but trying to time gold has proven difficult at the best of times.

3. june is a tricky month because of the nature of the COMEX volume and activity coupled with the Armstrong turn date mid-month, E-wavers building "C wave up" postulates, and the flatlining nature of so many overbought TA signals in the broad market.

4. with respect to the gold miners, i posted on friday that i sold a bit, in preparation to reload should things slide from here. its hard to time so i wouldnt be surprised to see $1000 before we see $900, but if we do fall from here, i suspect it will be nasty and fast to scare the pants off of people. too many are either bullish or expecting a nice orderly pull back to reload. when does it ever work like that?

5. GATA does some great work but they have zero credibility when it comes to inside information. there is no objective evidence that any of their sources have brought to the table something we either didnt already know, or was proven true after the fact. Jim Willie and the rest of the "black swan alert" gang have only been right in that gold has risen over the past few years. if you followed their advice and bought jr's and miners you'd probably still be underwater. theres no money in telling people to simply buy gold bars and sit on them. even though thats proven the best strategy the past few years from a passive investment perspective.

6. gold bugs still fall into the religious category, not investor type because far too much of their ideas on gold stem from biblical black swan events in which the second coming of their lord will appear in the next COMEX contract to send the gold price skyward to heaven.

the beauty of their system is that they have said the same thing for years, and neglect to discuss how often they were wrong, simply rehashing the same old arguments until one day they may just get it right, and they can do a victory lap while saying they told us so. too bad far too many gold bugs having been massively underwater holding miners the past few years will celebrate simply breaking even.

when gold and gold shares collapsed in 2008, few truly saw it and articulated it clearly enough, simply because its difficult to do. you cant blame anyone for getting it wrong. but you can blame those who got it wrong, but obfuscated the past by declaring why it went down and why it wont happen again on any further downdrafts. does anyone really think if the market crashes gold mining shares wont go down again? unless gold skyrockets up they will fall. even a gradual gold price rise will not hold the miners from falling w/ a big correction. dont let people claim it was "margin calls" from hedge funds.

hedge funds have been used to blame for anything and everything under the sun. gold bugs love blaming them for short positions, then crediting them for being savy when they suspect they are long... its religion, not analysis.

7. long and strong. half all in. thats my game. if we moonshoot to $1200, awesome, ill be happy. my standing offer remains: if the HGU hits $30 this year, ill go 2 rounds of Brazilian ju-jitsu with anyone willing to come up to toronto. its an open invitation/open weight class offer. and my ju-jitsu sucks, so im counting on the euphoria of gold miners that high keeping me from noticing the pain of getting choked out!!

8. USD came down fast, china like most nations dont want a currency crisis anywhere. they are not stupid war-mongers either, no one likes what north korea just did. China if anything will emerge as a more diplomatic force with everything that is happening as a collapse of the US would threaten the ruling regime in bejing, remember they have 1.6 billion people, the focus of chinese domestic politics has historically been of greater concern because of the sheer size of its populace. failure to contain domestic problems has led to regime change over the past 3000 years in china, not foreign invasions.

be careful about view china's actions through the "foreign policy" lens of western geo-strategic traditions. still valid in their own right, but not entirely applicable to china. remember, looks matter in totalitarian regimes, hence why dissent is so aggressively quelled in such regimes and the press/internet is restricted more than in the west. currency swaps with brazil and argentina may mark a turn from a US-dollar centric FOREX but are tears in the bucket, and dont negate china's ongoing purchases of US debt instruments. It just sounds good for domestic patriotism to imply they are turning away from american reliance when in fact they still are the biggest holder of US debt. Its all about looks.

9. same with Iran. they have no reason or desire to actually bomb anyone. Its a media game and a bunch of hot heads on either side trying to provoke someone. if they want nuclear weapon they could purchase one, or make one. this notion that we must intervene to stop them is ineffectual. no state has ever been able to do that. sanctions dont and wont work. all they do is bring the populace on the extremist side. regimes will as we have seen allow their people to starve before giving in. sanctions in iran or elsewhere are pointless and only give them more attention.

iran has enough fire power to do damage, they know using a nuclear weapon against anyone would mean their nation would be wiped from the map immediately. the rest is simply conjecture. think about how viable this is as a policy approach? its not, and most people know its hot air, unless of course you are only listening to right wing american media.

10. the taliban are not taking over pakistan, or their arsenal. it never was close to happening, and its even less likely now. most Pakistani's have no interest in the taliban running the show. its more media attention so they can run headlines to say "could taliban take control of the nukes in pakistan? should we send more troops???". its all a great pre-text to increase the stakes in the af-pak war. under the auspices of a nuclear-taliban obama can deploy more men and material there.

please if you dont believe me follow some articles here,

http://www.tomdispatch.com/

one of the most cogent geo-political blogs on the net.

11. its soccer time, need to blow off more steam!!!!

good luck gang.

right here, right now... gold

"Right Here Right Now", was the smash hit of Jesus Jones. They were among a handful of odd groups in the early 90's; not American enough to be grunge, not electronic enough to be techno. Jesus Jones rode a sort of fading post-new wave tide into the horizon, never to return to the scene.

Right Here Right Now was the theme song of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. While Americans were chanting "Yes We Can", more than a few weary democrats and liberal-thinkers were experiencing a deja vu of sorts. Gold seems to be at the precipice of something that I loosely define as a Right Here Right Now moment. Looking at the chart I cant help but be filled with bullish enthusiasm, all the technicals, moving averages and trend lines appear to be in place for a push forward to and beyond $1000.

I use the Money Flow Index rarely, perhaps only because I so rarely see it featured in discusions of technical analysis, but I think recent developments warrant consideration of what has registered on the Money Flow Index at 2 different time frames (14 and 21).

The OBV indicator is best restricted to breakout's from consolidation patterns (imho), otherwise it gives a host of false flags and divergences that never seem to match subsequent price action. We see in a 1 year chart of the GLD the OBV like the current price action is up against a critical resistance point. The direction has a bullish inclination but has yet to be decisively broken to the upside. The recent recovery of the US Dollar from week's plunge below .82 on the index reminds me that nothing is ever a sure thing, especially in gold and in early 90's one-hit wonders.


Good Luck gang,

J

Don Coxe May, 2009 Conference Call

Don Coxe May, 2009 Conference Call available here.

A tale of two cities?

Bonds, having fallen through support in such a short period of time has drawn the attention of not just gold-bugs but the powers that be, who couldn't permit a free fall in US debt. No, a nice gradual cooling would be the politically expedient thing to do. A bounce back towards the 100 level in the TLT at the 200 SMA which will soon flatten while the 50 and 100 SMA's look to cross downwards is a classic short set-up. (That is for those confident enough that the Fed will not announce further rounds of QE in an attempt to goose the market)


The inverse or short EFT the TBT is flashing all the tecnical signs of an interm top:

Sto, RSI, MACD turning down on fairly strong volume after a test of the 200 SMA. The 50 and 100 SMA's are curling up nicely and correction down into the 45-47 range is not out of the question. The first shot across the bow is TLT 100, while the war begins at 105 where any advance from there would reassert an intermediate uptrend in bonds. Gold $1000 does not appear in the cards until bonds can fight it out.


good luck,

J

Canadian MP accused of mistreating foreign workers

Limousine Liberals, Champagne Socialists and draft dodging Conservatives...


A member of Parliament for the Liberal party of Canada has been accused of illegally hiring and mistreating foreign domestic aid's or "nannies", and as if that weren't bad enough, she is accused of withholding their passports and demanded they sign waivers denying this was ever done once the whistle was blown.

Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla is well know in Canadian political circles for being the first Sikh MP, and being hand picked by Paul Martin to run in her Brampton Riding. From the start I disliked the nature of Ms. Dhalla's tenure as MP, it seemed that issue after issue arose from a tax-payer funded junket to her native India, her attempts to supress a "Bollywood" style video from being released in which she played the main character but claimed her body was digitally altered, to the current scandal. Developments continue to highlight an MP who brazenly advised an employment service that she could use her political clout to secure travel and work permits for her staff, paid domestic workers low wages in cash and assigned them tasks well outside the permitted guidelines for foreign home-care workers. To make matters worse, Dhalla has denied having any involvement in the hiring of these workers despite her personal interview and payment to the main nanny in question.

We can expect the usual boiler-plate denials and obfuscation from the Dhalla camp, but the facts are coming together and its getting ugly...fast. Why an MP would even chance hiring domestic workers and paying them cash before they are properly documented to work in Canada is beyond me.

Why the Dhalla family would think it appropriate to make domestic workers wash cars and clean offices is even more contemptible. Ignatief is riding a wave of popularity at the moment, this will no doubt make his reconsider the "rising star" status of Dhalla, this can only end badly for her and she has no one to blame but herself.

J

Storm erupts over Ruby Dhalla and the nannies

ADRIAN WYLD/THE CANADIAN PRESS FILE PHOTO

MPs Ruby Dhalla, left, and Judy Sgro join Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff on stage after his speech at the party's convention May 2, 2009 in Vancouver. Dhalla has been a supporter of Ignatieff since his 2006 leadership bid.

www.thestar.ca

Ottawa under pressure to probe Liberal MP after caregivers claim they were mistreated

May 06, 2009 04:30 AM

Susan Delacourt
IN OTTAWA
Dale Brazao
IN TORONTO

The federal government is facing pressure to launch a legal probe of Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla in the wake of charges that she and her family illegally hired two nannies and subsequently mistreated them.

Immigration Minister Jason Kenney said yesterday there are several legal penalties for the type of allegations the nannies have made against Dhalla, 35, MP for Brampton-Springdale since 2004 and the Liberals' critic for youth and multiculturalism. He did not specifically mention Dhalla or the specific allegations published in the Star and he said he could not launch his own probe for fear of politicizing the process.

"We're aware of stories of abuse of the rights of live-in caregivers that are very disturbing. These are typically vulnerable workers," Kenney told the Commons.

Dhalla did not make herself available to reporters yesterday, and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff would only say he was still "collecting facts" on the case. NDP immigration critic Olivia Chow said that if the nannies' reports are true, "then there are three or four laws at least that have been broken, whether it's labour laws or immigration regulations."

The Star reported yesterday that two nannies, Magdalene Gordo, 31, and Richelyn Tongson, 37, have publicly complained they were abused while working as live-in caregivers for Dhalla and her family. They alleged, during a public forum two weeks ago with two Ontario cabinet ministers, that their passports were seized, they worked unpaid overtime and were forced to do non-nanny jobs such as washing cars, shining shoes and cleaning family-owned chiropractic clinics.

"One question I have is if this information came to light in a public forum, I would hope that any responsible authorities would have notified the appropriate officials," Kenney said. "I think these allegations may have been provided two weeks ago to a minister of labour in Ontario and I presume that the appropriate authorities were informed."

Jill Fairbrother, Ignatieff's spokesperson, would not say what facts he was collecting nor how long it would take him to make a decision, if any, on Dhalla's fate. Dhalla couldn't be reached for comment, but her office released a statement late yesterday saying she took the assertions in the Star story seriously. "I have hired a lawyer to vigorously defend my reputation and ensure the facts of this matter are fully explored and corrected."

Dhalla told the Star on the weekend she was "shocked and appalled" by the allegations and said "anyone who has ever worked in our home has been treated with a lot of love."

Dhalla's name is becoming synonymous with controversy, and her troubles present Ignatieff with tough questions about how to handle someone who has been a loyal supporter of his since the 2006 leadership race.

Generally seen as a probable cabinet pick should Ignatieff ever assume power, Dhalla may be coming to be seen as too controversial, despite her photogenic and multicultural appeal. She's the first Sikh woman ever to be elected as an MP. Only a little more than a month ago, Dhalla was embroiled in a dispute over release of a Bollywood DVD in which she appeared, before she got into politics.

And just over a year ago, while on a trip to India, Dhalla was portrayed as cavalier and insensitive when police administered beatings to two children who stole the purse of an aide to the Liberal MP. Dhalla later said she condemned violence of any kind.

Yesterday, the head of a non-profit group that advocates for caregivers said she gave Dhalla 24 hours to turn over the passport and other documents seized from Tongson. Agatha Mason, executive director of Intercede, said she warned Dhalla that if she did not hand over the documents immediately she would call in the RCMP to retrieve them.

Mason said she called Dhalla in Ottawa last May after nanny Tongson, who was working "illegally" as a caregiver in the Dhalla home, was having trouble getting her documents back from her employers. "I said to her, in 24 hours if you don't give her the documents I will call the RCMP – I have your address – and have them go there to get the documents," Mason told the Star.

Mason said she told Dhalla Tongson shouldn't be working at the Dhalla home because the family did not have federal approval under the Live-In Caregiver Program.

"I remember telling her that, until you have and LMO (government approval documents) the person is working illegally, so you're breaking the law," said Mason, adding she has notes and telephone records to prove she contacted Dhalla.

In a telephone interview with the Star last week, Dhalla denied she had spoken to anyone from the Toronto-based agency. "I have never spoken to anyone there," Dhalla said. "What is Intercede?"

The Independent Workers Association called on Ontario Attorney General Chris Bentley to investigate Dhalla's employment of nannies, and for Dhalla to be relieved of critic's responsibilities until the inquiry is completed. "These accusations should be investigated promptly and thoroughly. And while the investigation is ongoing, Ms. Dhalla should step down," Peter Leibovitch of the association said in a news release.

Coincidentally, the Commons immigration committee – on which Dhalla once served as a member several years ago – is due to deliver a report today on undocumented and temporary foreign workers. In the House of Commons yesterday, Conservative MP Paul Calandra (Oak Ridges-Markham) said the nannies' complaints painted a picture of "involuntary servitude" in their employment with Dhalla.

Kenney responded by listing potential offences Dhalla could be facing.

"If someone was working in a home who was here without a work permit appropriate for that job, that would be my ministry and so that should be reported to the officials at Immigration Canada. If someone was paid under the table without taxes paid, that should be reported to Revenue Canada. And if workers did not have their basic labour code rights respected, if they were forced to work 12 hours a day or something then that should be reported to the provincial ministry of labour," Kenney said.

"As it relates to passports, you know, I think that would probably fall within my ministry. Passports are the property of the government, are administered by the department of foreign affairs."

At Queen's Park, an aide to Labour Minister Peter Fonseca said the minister last spoke with Kenney about three weeks ago, before the public meeting where the allegations about Dhalla were raised.

With files from Robert Benzie and Bruce Campion-Smith

whats on the dome today....

heres what im thinking:

1. we've seen many a sudden gold rally spike up, consolidate with a slight downward slope before spiking up again and continuing the pattern. even with golds recent jump's we are only a few dollars higher today than we were yesterday so i see the current move as having some potential but nothing outstanding yet.

2. the volume on the mining shares was weak for most during this upswing, but the % move up was nice. we would need to see some serious follow through on volume to signal the move up beyond $1000 imho. its not going to happen on this kind of volume.

3. good to see the Venture Exchange getting some ground, especially old favourites like Miranda. its been so long since the jr's behaved bullishly i dont know what to think. they still have a loooooog looooog way to get back to anything reasonable. there are many exhausted jr mining investors begging for prices to return to these stocks after years of torture.

4. good to see the USD falling a bit along w/ bonds, i suspect everyone was so concerned about calling this "bear market" rally's top that it just kept going to prove everyone wrong once again. most money managers are shy right now imho, mabey too shy if this turns into a crack-up boom. it will break at some point but not until more reluctant people are dragged along.

5. im getting the feeling that massive dislocations will start to take place b/w precious and base metals. alot of money is getting thrown around here and it doesnt always seem to correlate very well. ie: wheat up large, while corn down, then massive reversal's the next day despite crop problems in both on the horizon...

6. pork. its usually on my mind because im addicted to it, but i suspect the buy of a lifetime coming up and a cyclical bull market in pork will take place. for all the talk of what the chinese are doing people forget its not gold they want as much as their main food staple: pork. rice is simply the vehicle to carry the porky juices and fatty run off.

china cut canada's pork exports despite very reasonable support that there is no risk at all to contracting swine flu. it shows how unscientific most nations get when things get hairy. it reminds me the futility of the WTO and UN who lack any real teeth when the going gets tough. what is happening right now will decimate the pork industry in north america, especially canada and pork will continue to be in high demand. its nutritionally more dense than beef because its fat is so prized. (and tasty!)

problems in pork production are going to make local pork jump in price as entire herds get slaughtered if things get worse. a good case study for prices rising as demand falls, farmers will find it not worth while to have pigs if more nations start cutting us out. watching pork for a longer term move up once the carnage is done and the dust settles.

7. i was just thinking the only thing more awesome than a flying unicorn is a unicorn with wings made out of bacon.

8. i have a standing challange to anyone for a few rounds of brazilian jujitsu if and when the HGU breaches $35 in 2009. here's your chance to choke me and my smug commentary out. just no knee-bar's, i have a soccer career to maintain!!

happy trading...


J